Hurricane Beryl was the earliest Category 4 Atlantic hurricane (June 30) and the earliest Category 5 (July 1) Atlantic hurricane on record. Major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher) typically happen two months later. In 48 hours, Beryl rapidly developed from a tropical depression (June 28) to a tropical storm (June 29) and into a Category 4 hurricane (June 30). Beryl did not give much warning to the islands of Grenada. This rapid intensification there was due to very warm sea surface temperatures for June.
Hurricane Beryl then went on to pass close to Jamaica”s southern coast before slamming into Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula. It then continued north in a weakened form to the Houston area where it hit as a Category 1 hurricane. Houston was flooded with about 9 inches of rain, and 2.7 million people lost power. With no electricity for air conditioning, people suffered in the humid and hot Houston with temperatures in the 90s and a heat index over 100F. (It is my impression that Houston has been hit by many hurricanes and tropical storms, and the Houston area is prone to flooding every few years. I appear to be right.)
I grew up in the Portland, Oregon area (on the Washington side of the Columbia River). If you look at the decadal count of 90F days and above for Portland you will see that the 2010 decade had the most days with the 2020 decade already strongly trending to beat the 2010 decade. It looks like the big decadal change has been more 95-99F days in the later decades. When I grew up in the 1960’s and early and mid 1970s there were not that many really hot days. Now there are more of those hot days in the Portland area. And here in Colorado, where I have been for the last 37 years, I have seen the temperatures warm. Denver has a 152 year weather record. Since 2000 there have been 20 years with at least 40 90F and above days and four years with less. Before 2000, there have been only 15 years with at least 40 90F and above days, and that is for a 128 year time period.
The Earth is warming. According to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (connected with the European space program), the last 12 months, from July 2023 through June 2024, were all record breaking and were all at least 1.5C (2.7F) above their monthly pre-industrial baseline with an increase of 1.64C for the 12 month average. Are we ready for a warmer Earth?
A warmer Earth means more energy in the atmosphere. Hurricane Beryl is an example of what could happen on a warmer Earth with its rapid intensification, strong wind, and lots of rain. I showed the increase in temperatures in Portland and Denver. In the NW people are starting to buy air conditioners for their houses, and the same thing has been true in Colorado. When I moved to Colorado, an air conditioner was not needed. A whole house fan was the thing to have instead of an air conditioner. Today I consider an air conditioner a must for both the car and the house. Rising sea levels are another challenge that we will need to face due to a warming earth. How many urban areas are at or just above sea level? Quite a few.
We need to prepare for a warmer Earth. The warm Earth has already arrived, and I believe that the temperatures will continue to rise. I believe much of the warming is human caused, so cutting back on CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gas emissions is a good thing to do. Governments have set goals to cut back on emissions. Even though we are making some progress, I believe we will miss those goals. I am not an alarmist forecasting doom, and I am not a denier who thinks this is all made up, but we need to realize that the Earth is already warmer and it will be even warmer, so we need to prepare for it. There may be places where the temperatures may become so extreme that humans will need to abandon those places. People from warmer climes will likely suffer more and will want to move poleward. In America we will need to be ready for them.
The warm Earth is here for the foreseeable future, and we need to be ready for it.
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